August 8, 2006

Why Jonathan Papelbon will be the ROY and CY Young.

 

Today I took a closer look at the best chase for the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young awards
we've seen in quite some time.  After comparing stats and using ESPN's season projected totals
I have come to the conclusion that the race is still wide open.

 

I then decided to take a look at the greatest season ever by a closing pitcher and compared him
to Jonathan Papelbon, I then took a look at the other pitching competition that season and that
was easy because Roger Clemens was the only other pitcher deserving of the Cy Young that year.

 

To reach my final conclusion I had to determine wether a season that will rival Dennis Eckersley's
greatest can stand up to the very fine seasons being had by a number of rookie starters this season,
and I decided it does, and then some.

 

Now the problem with the ESPN projected stats is that there based on playing time so Papelbon
and Weaver's stats are a little cut down from where they could be; Papelbon's because he had a
July in which Boston didn't call on him as much for lack of save situations and Weaver's because
hes been up and down between AAA and Los Angelas this year.

 

First I want to compare Papelbon and Eckersley to put how great Papelbon's season trully is.
(1990 was Eck's statistically greatest season, 1992 was his MVP/Cy Young season)

 

	Year	G	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	W - L	SV	ERA	WHIP
Jonathan Papelbon	2006	49	56.2	29	4	3	10	58	3 - 1	30	0.64	0.69
Jonathan Papelbon	Proj.	68	90.2	41	6	4	14	81	4 - 1	42	0.64	0.69
Dennis Eckersley	1990	63	73.3	41	5	2	4	73	4 - 2	48	0.61	0.61
Dennis Eckersley	1992	69	80.0	62	17	5	11	93	7 - 1	51	1.91	0.91

 

Jonathan Papelbon's season stands up pretty well against the Eck. so well in fact that there at
a virtual deadlock, and Papelbon stands up much better to Eck's MVP/CY season aside from the
save total, but keep in mind that Paps projected total is skewed some from July.

 

Next lets put Papelbon up against the rest of his fellow rookie class; Justin Verlander,
Francisco Liriano and Jared Weaver.

 

	Year	G	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	W - L	SV	ERA	WHIP
Jonathan Papelbon	2006	49	56.2	29	4	3	10	58	3 - 1	30	0.64	0.69
Jonathan Papelbon	Proj.	68	90.2	41	6	4	14	81	4 - 1	42	0.64	0.69
Justin Verlander	2006	21	135.1	119	44	12	38	92	14 - 4	0	2.79	1.16
Justin Verlander	Proj.	30	194.0	171	63	17	54	132	20 - 6	0	2.79	1.16
Francisco Liriano	2006	27	119.0	88	31	9	32	142	12 - 3	1	2.19	1.01
Francisco Liriano	Proj.	39	174.0	128	45	13	47	207	18 - 4	1	2.19	1.01
Jared Weaver	2006	9	59.2	41	13	2	14	47	7 - 0	0	1.81	0.92
Jared Weaver	Proj.	13	85.0	59	19	3	20	67	10 - 0	0	1.81	0.92

 

Now, as I mentioned before, because of how you project stats, Papelbon's and Weaver's are
skewed a little as well as Liriano's since he was a relief pitcher early this season which advances
his stats some.

 

Francisoco Liriano is DL bound today after last night's game and depending on how long he
remains on it, his chances here may have been eliminated unless the other three fall apart.

 

Here is the last chat, this is comparing Eckersley and Clemens in 1992 when Eck won the CY and MVP.

 

	G	IP	H	R	HR	BB	SO	W - L	SV	ERA	WHIP
Roger Clemens	35	271.1	219	79	15	65	241	18 - 10	0	2.62	1.05
Dennis Eckersley	69	80.0	62	17	5	11	93	7 - 1	51	1.91	0.91

 

Papelbon certainly stands up well against Verlander, Liriano and Weaver if comparing to the
Clemens/Eckersley season.

 

The last thing that could effect the voting is location of the players.  People always talk about
"East Coast Bias"  and that certainly could help Papelbon, but I think as much as that could
help him, the fact that Verlander and Liriano are from the same region will hurt them.

 

My order of finish for these players are:

Cy Young Award*

1. Papelbon, Boston
2. Verlander, Detroit
3. Liriano, Minnesotta
4. Weaver, Los Angeles

 

Rookie of the Year**

 

1. Papelbon
2. Liriano
3. Verlander
4. Weaver

 

* These are the finishing order among the rookies, I don't believe the top 4  of the whole ballot
will be rookies, but Papelbon will win.

 

** I believe the voters in the region of Michigan and Minnesotta will split Verlander having the
edge in Cy Young while the voters give Liriano the edge in Rookie voting.